The Hidden Death Toll of Austerity: Why We Need Miller’s Law (Says Samuel Miller)

 

The Hidden Death Toll of Austerity: Why We Need Miller’s Law

When politicians slash funding for welfare, healthcare, Medicaid, or Social Security, they often frame it as fiscal responsibility. But behind the sterile language of “budget tightening” lies a brutal truth: these cuts kill. Not metaphorically. Literally.

💀 Austerity Has a Body Count

Recent research has laid bare the devastating human cost of austerity policies:

• In the UK, austerity measures introduced after 2010 led to approximately 190,000 excess deaths between 2010 and 2019. These were not inevitable deaths—they were preventable, caused by reduced access to healthcare, housing, and social support.
• A separate study from University College London found that over 1 million people in the UK died prematurely between 2011 and 2019 due to health inequalities exacerbated by austerity. Of those, 148,000 deaths were directly attributed to austerity policies.
• Another analysis estimated that 335,000 excess deaths occurred in the UK due to austerity—twice as many as previously thought.

These are not just numbers. They represent real people—many of them poor, disabled, elderly, or chronically ill—whose lives were cut short because their governments chose to balance budgets on their backs.

🧾 The U.S. Is Not Immune

While much of the data comes from the UK, the United States is on a similar path. Cuts to Medicaid expansion, disability benefits, and food assistance programs have already been linked to increased mortality, especially in marginalized communities. Yet, these consequences are rarely acknowledged in public discourse.

Why? Because death by austerity is slow, dispersed, and politically convenient to ignore.

⚖️ Introducing Miller’s Law: Accountability for Austerity

It’s time to demand accountability. Just as environmental impact assessments are required before building a highway, Miller’s Law would require a “deaths assessment” before any legislation that reduces funding for essential social programs.

Under Miller’s Law, lawmakers would be obligated to:

• Commission independent studies estimating the potential mortality impact of proposed cuts.
• Publicly disclose these findings before a vote.
• Justify any decision to proceed despite projected loss of life.

This isn’t radical—it’s responsible governance. If a policy is likely to result in thousands of premature deaths, the public deserves to know. And politicians should be forced to own that decision.

🧠 The Moral Imperative

We cannot allow budgetary decisions to be made in a moral vacuum. Every dollar cut from Medicaid or Social Security is a policy choice with life-or-death consequences. Pretending otherwise is not just negligent—it’s cruel.

Miller’s Law would shine a light on the human cost of austerity and force our leaders to confront the consequences of their actions. Because in a just society, no one should die for being poor.

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Liz Kendall's statement to Labour MPs

 

Liz Kendall’s statement makes a clear distinction: current PIP recipients will not be affected by the new eligibility rules. The phrase “stay within the current system” strongly suggests that anyone already receiving PIP before November 2026 will continue to be assessed and reviewed under the existing criteria—even after that date.

So, in practical terms:

• New claimants from November 2026 onward will face the revised eligibility rules (such as the requirement to score at least 4 points in a single activity).
• Existing claimants will remain under the current system, even when their awards come up for review.

This marks a significant shift from earlier proposals, which had implied that all claimants—new and existing—would eventually be reassessed under the new rules. The updated position appears to be a response to political pressure and concerns about fairness and disruption.

If you’re looking to clarify this for others, you might say: “The government has confirmed that only new PIP claims from November 2026 will be subject to the new eligibility criteria. Existing claimants will continue under the current system, even after that date.”

Reference: 

rightsnet: now: Work and Pensions Secretary’s letter to Labour MPs on changes to ‘strengthen’ the new welfare reform bill - Rightsnet https://www.rightsnet.org.uk/now/post/63585

 

To April Dwyer

 

Yes, based on the latest available information, existing PIP recipients will be subject to the new eligibility rules if their award is reviewed from November 2026 onwards.

Liz Kendall, the Work and Pensions Secretary, confirmed that from that date, claimants must score at least 4 points in a single activity to qualify for the daily living component of PIP. This is in addition to the existing requirement of scoring a total of at least 8 points overall. The mobility component remains unchanged.

The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) has stated it will work with the Department of Health and Social Care to ensure that people who may no longer qualify under the new rules still have their health and care needs met. However, this does suggest that existing claimants will be reassessed under the new criteria when their reviews occur after November 2026.

You can read more details in this summary of Liz Kendall’s speech or from this article explaining the new PIP points system.

Parliamentary Sovereignty

 

That’s a classic constitutional conundrum, and a great opportunity to slice through the fog with some clarity and bite.

While parliamentary sovereignty means Parliament can make or unmake any law it chooses, judicial review still plays a crucial role—especially when it comes to human rights and administrative fairness. Even if a policy like PIP cuts is embedded in legislation, courts can still scrutinize how it's implemented. For example:

• If the implementation of the law violates the Equality Act 2010, the Human Rights Act 1998, or principles of procedural fairness, it can be challenged.
• The courts can’t strike down the Act itself, but they can issue a declaration of incompatibility under the Human Rights Act, putting political pressure on Parliament to amend it.
• They can also rule that specific decisions made under the Act are unlawful—especially if they’re discriminatory, irrational, or made without proper consideration of individual circumstances.

So no, parliamentary sovereignty doesn’t give the government a blank cheque. It’s not about whether the law exists—it’s about how it’s wielded. And if the DWP starts using that law like a blunt instrument, the courts can still step in and say, “Not like that, you don’t.”

Reclaiming Humanity: Challenging the Language of "Economic Inactivity"

Recently, Liz Kendall—now the UK’s Work and Pensions Secretary—criticized the term “economically inactive”, calling it a “terrible” phrase to describe those out of the labour market. She’s right. It’s a cold, clinical label that erases the real, complex lives behind it: people living with chronic illness, disability, caregiving responsibilities, and mental health struggles.

For too long, policymakers have relied on this kind of technocratic shorthand to frame non-working populations as a problem to be solved, rather than citizens to be supported. "Economically inactive" suggests stagnation, burden, even blame. But what it hides are the social and structural failings that push people out of work—lack of accommodation, inadequate healthcare, unaffordable care systems, and inaccessible workplaces.

That Kendall is distancing herself from this language signals a shift, at least rhetorically. But words are just the beginning. If we truly want to honour the humanity of those left behind by austerity and neglect, we need more than new terminology—we need a radically different vision of work, health, and dignity.

Because when a label like “economically inactive” is allowed to define someone’s worth, we’ve already lost sight of what a just society demands.

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More Weight: Austerity’s Cruel Burden on the UK’s Sick and Disabled

In The Crucible, Arthur Miller gives us Giles Corey—pressed to death under heavy stones for refusing false confession. His final words? “More weight.” A man literally crushed by injustice, defiant to the end.

For the UK’s sick and disabled, years of austerity have echoed that slow, merciless pressure. Every cut to services, every reassessment, every hostile policy—another boulder on the chest. More weight.

PIP, ESA, WCA, bedroom tax, benefit sanctions—the labels shift, but the burden doesn’t. This isn’t collapse; it’s a long erosion of dignity, security, and hope.

And like Miller’s Salem, this didn’t happen by accident. It stems from deliberate choices—policies that punish need under the guise of reform. Starmer’s recent welfare concessions don’t erase that legacy. If anything, a two-tier PIP system adds yet another stone. Discrimination by date of claim? Still more weight.

Austerity didn’t just fail the disabled community—it damaged them. Its toll is counted in lost health, stolen independence, and shortened lives.

We should remember Giles Corey—not for his suffering alone, but for his resistance. He stood unbroken under the weight. Today, we owe that same resolve to every disabled person still being pressed down by this system.

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Welfare bill cuts could lead to 500,000 people losing out by more than £8,000, IFS says

 

Welfare bill cuts could lead to 500,000 people losing out by more than £8,000, IFS says

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published a new report today on the proposals to cut sickness and disability benefits in the UC and Pip bill. Many thinktanks have already published reports on the impact of these measures, but this analysis contains some new material, and is a bit more long term than some of the other ones.

It contains findings that might be welcomed both by supporters of the bill, and its opponents.

Supporters of the bill argue that the current system is unsustainable, and the IFS says that eventually the measures could save £11bn a year.

The long-run legacy of these reforms is far greater. The reform package will still be being rolled out well into the 2030s. Based on 2029–30 claimant numbers, we expect the three main reforms could save £10bn per year when fully rolled out. Adding in the removal of UCHE [universal credit health element] for under-22s, the proposed additional premium for those with the most severe disabilities and the scrapping of the work capability assessment brings the savings to as much as £11bn per year, equivalent to 17% of pre-reform expected health-related working-age benefit expenditure in 2029–30. If the number of applicants for health-related benefits continues to grow past 2029–30, both spending on health-related benefits and the savings from these reforms could be even bigger than these figures.

But bigger-than-expected savings for the taxpayer means bigger-than-expected losses for claimants, and the IFS says in the long term this could lead to 500,000 people losing more than £8,000. That figure is a mix of existing claimants who will find their payments cut, and future claimants who will lose because they will receive less than they would have got under the old system. The IFS says:

These savings – and again, this is after the reforms are fully rolled out – come from 3.2 million claimants of health-related benefits losing an average of £4,000 per year and 5 million individuals, largely without an assessed disability, gaining £410 per year on average. For some, the losses will be much greater: perhaps as many as half a million will see their incomes fall by more than £8,000.

The IFS also says the changes involve a significant redistribution within the welfare system.

The way that this package of reforms is designed means that their full effect will not be felt for many years to come. But when that full effect is in place, the legacy of these policies is a huge change to the shape of benefits in the UK. Support for health conditions, which – unlike unemployment support – has gradually increased in real terms over recent decades (Waters, 2025), will fall significantly. Some people who would have received health-related support under the current system will not, and most people who continue to receive some will receive less. These reforms will go at least some way to slowing the rapid increase in spending on health-related benefits since the pandemic. And it is likely that that will increase employment – perhaps in the low six figures.

In contrast, the support for people without health conditions will be increased. The introduction of an unemployment insurance – a significant contributory benefit against the backdrop of our predominantly means-tested system – will represent a meaningful increase in the protection the system provides against job loss. This is bolstered by the increase in the UC standard allowance.

We know, we know, we know …